Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Attempting to fix the National Hockey League-the series begins


Reading this article from the Toronto Globe and Mail by Eric Duhatschek made me think of some ways to fix the NHL.
Since this will be an attempt to show what we would do instead of what Gary Bettman wont do,We will attempt to show restraint on the ineptitude of Bettman......

This will be done over time and on slow days,so don't scream at me that part two isn't tomorrow!

Looking at finances,one can see that some franchises are hanging on only because of the PR hit that the league would take by teams drowning themselves and eliminating themselves from the league...
Some teams play in dreadfully outdated arenas that cannot compete (New York Islanders),some are in towns that simply are not large enough to house a major league franchises (Carolina),others are in towns that thirsted for a big league team and then another came to town and blew them out of the water (Nashville).

Need more?
How about Atlanta and Phoenix?
Both of those teams are in markets that are large enough to support four pro teams,but seem to be there because the NHL seems to think they have to.
The Florida teams that play before next to no one because the NHL (and they are not alone in this) continue to delude themselves that Florida is anything but a football state.....

In the last twenty years,look at the expansion cities/relocated teams and look at the successes and failures.
Attendance numbers can be found here on a Dallas Stars blog (yes,there is such a thing)
San Jose:I would say successful,but they are a team that needs to have a star (Joe Thornton) or win to keep interest up.

Ottawa:Easily a success.

Tampa Bay: They have sold more tickets over the last few seasons and on paper the numbers look good.
However,watch a game there and see the amount of people there and you cannot help but think that either the numbers are padded or they are a team dependent on the corporate market and that is an area that I would not want to be counting on right now.
I would give them a passable grade for winning a cup,but they are on the ropes now.

Florida:Failure. Tumbling attendance and poor play has this team almost beyond salvage.

Anaheim: Attendance on the increase lately,but seems similar to San Jose-they do fine,as long as they win....

Nashville:Abject failure.They can barely get enough fans to meet the bare minimums to keep the team there.Would anyone care if they left?
Maybe if Jeff Fisher went with them!

Atlanta: They had exciting young players and still didn't draw!
And the only interesting things about the current team is where will Ilya Kovalchuk be traded to and how many fans will attend games after he is gone.
I would wager that Phillips Arena will have the sound of rattling a few BB's in a glass jar!
Failure.

Columbus:Looking at it today,Borderline failure,but the attendance was strong early before fading over time as continued mismanagement made the Blue Jackets the only team in the league to never make the playoffs.
I think that winning will return the fans to the arena,but missteps on and off the ice has hurt this franchise.

Minnesota:This was so easy that anyone could have nailed this one.
Maybe the best hockey market in the USA.

Relocation towns have a scattered record as well....

Dallas: This is the surprise to me.
Consistent attendance and the team has usually been solid.
The owner (Tom Hicks) doesn't mind throwing money around and that helps,but a argument can made that Dallas is the success story of relocation and I would not have said that before this article.

Denver: The Avalanche drew very well for years when they were one of the dominant four teams in the league,but attendance has begun to slide as their record began to dip.
Certainly a success,but keep an interested eye on Colorado over the next few years......

Carolina: I know they won a cup,but their attendance has not been great,although it increased over the last two years.
The market seems too small and the fans seem to only be interested on occasion.
The cup gives them points,but this seems to be a projected failure.....

Phoenix: Below average attendance and a mediocre on ice product makes this a failure.
The Coyotes are the 5th choice at best in their market (behind Arizona State) and anything short of a major improvement in the standings makes this a failure.

So take that and one must draw the conclusion that much of the Bettman plan has been a failure.
The biggest relocation success was a team that should have never been allowed to leave (Dallas) and that created the largest success of the expansion teams (Minnesota).

So how do we fix it?
Well, we aren't there yet.
Tough decisions have to be made on teams that are anchored in various degrees of tradition.

The New York Islanders play in the leagues worst arena and have the leagues worst attendance thus far and our New Jersey Devils have not had the increase expected by a new arena......
Do we really need two teams in Southern California that only draw when they are contenders for the championship?
And if one goes,which one?
The Kings and their 40 years in the league or the Ducks with less time in the league,but a championship that the Kings lack?

Do we relocate or eliminate?
There are cities that claim that they want hockey,but the cities that aren't drawing wanted teams too.
I have major problems with the American cities that want teams,but some do have a few positives.
Houston has the advantages of drawing reasonably well in the old WHA and currently in the AHL and the success of the Stars gives me some hope,but the economy in Houston is awful right now to the point that the Astros are struggling to get corporate support.
Kansas City has a new arena that is sitting there as a dust magnet and the arena owner owns part of the Kings,so bank on Kansas City getting a team eventually somehow despite its past hockey failures....
Las Vegas is a figment of peoples imagination.
The thought is that travelers will go to games,but that is a fallacy.
People travel to Vegas for either gambling or a big time event like boxing,not to see an NHL Game.
I have always thought that hockey in the Northwest would fly,especially in Seattle,but Seattle lost the NBA due to a bad arena situation and I don't think Portland,which has a nice arena,is large enough to support basketball and hockey.
Cleveland's economy likely knocks them out and the same goes for Milwaukee.
Hartford is likely not large enough for the NHL to return and besides that would be admitting that Bettman's Southern Strategy was a mistake.

Face it- there just are not enough cities in the US to make relocation truly feasible and that leaves one option and it is the one that Gary Bettman is adamantly against-Canada.
Hamilton has major problems with Buffalo and Toronto to get through in order to get a team,but I would wager that if the numbers were right,Jim Balsillie has the money to write a check to muzzle,if not pacify the Leafs and Sabres and get a team in a rabid market.
Winnipeg is ready to go and despite a below average market size would be a huge success,especially if Wayne Gretzky and the Coyotes do the right thing and allow the Jets name to be used.

But lets face it,even moving those teams do not solve all the problems.
So lets try to be fair and move one of the Florida teams.
Lets move the Panthers instead of the Lightning as Tampa would be more likely to fight a move.
Miami has the NBA in winter,Tampa doesn't.
The Florida Panthers become the "new" Winnipeg Jets.

Here comes a controversial decision-what team is struggling and has the most past history?
The New York Islanders and their four cups are hanging on a thread as described earlier with a poor arena,little hope of a new one and matching bad attendance.
But eliminating them robs us of some history.
The answer,we pay Buffalo and Toronto off (after all,that is how the Islanders and Devils arrived to begin with) and move the Islanders to Hamilton,where the team will be based right off Lake Ontario and could keep the Islander nickname without it being ridiculous.
New York is a huge market,but in these times,I don't think that any area can support three teams.
This keeps the Islander history in the league and puts them in a rabid market that will draw for a while with a bad team.
This is very important as the Islanders will take quite a while to turn things around after years of bumbling mismanagement.

Now it is time to improve the product.
The players association will fight us,but we cut to 24 teams.
Two 12 team conferences each with six team divisions.
If you or the NHLPA really wants to fight us,I will consider 26 teams,but no more.

We trim the season from 82 games to 78.
This isn't a huge loss and it makes the schedule work better.
6 games against each of the teams in your division (30),4 games against the teams in the opposite division in conference (24) and home and home against the other conference (24).
78 works perfectly.

This will save some mileage off the stars and with better top to bottom talent with cutting teams,we should have a better game to watch......
Plus look at the potential of a dispersal draft with names like Kovalchuk,Nash,Boumeester,Getzlaff,Perry,Jokinen and the list goes on.
You could make an argument that every team in the league would be adding an instant top shelf player to their roster and that makes each teams talent level better and therefore a better game.

The teams that go range from easy to tough.
Atlanta,Carolina,Nashville are easy.
Now the hard part-We with a lot of reluctance select Los Angeles to stay and that means Anaheim goes.
The two teams that would stay,if 26 becomes the compromise, are Columbus and Phoenix.
Columbus has huge potential,especially if they would be placed in the East instead of their current West division,but the attendance drop off makes it tough to keep them.
None of the West teams really stand out to stay at 26,so Phoenix gets the stand by role due to their isolated geography......

The divisions set up as follows

Eastern Conference
Northern Division
Boston
Buffalo
Hamilton
Montreal
Ottawa
Toronto

Southern Division
New Jersey
New York
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay
Washington

Western Conference
Midwest Division
Chicago
Colorado
Dallas
Detroit
Minnesota
St.Louis

Western Division
Calgary
Edmonton
Los Angeles
San Jose
Vancouver
Winnipeg

Tampa stays to keep something in the Southeast,but they are on a probation period,so if they cannot get things done,we can move them to a new location.
I am not thrilled with this,but the alternatives did not seem to work at this time.
No existing rivalries are lost and even some are gained as Washington returns to the teams that their fans consider their true rivals and Colorado renews its battles with Detroit......

The playoffs return to the tried and true method that worked so well for years.
Four teams from each division and two rounds of playoff in the division produce a survivor.
Playoff hockey the way you like it!

In future editions,we deal with the cap,salaries and changes to the on ice game....

Photo Credits
Puck:Unknown

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