Five reasons that the Pirates stay in the race and five that they won't

Sorry I missed Monday,I was in Frederick for the Kinston Indians and badly needed to catch up on some rest.
I hope to follow this with two more posts between today and tomorrow.

I am surprised as anyone with the Pittsburgh Pirates play in the first half,after all-I picked them to lose 98 games!
This post will look at five reasons that the Pirates could continue in their run to the NL Central finish line and then counterpoint those reasons for why they will fade from the race....

1: Starting Pitching.

Point:
The Pirates starting pitching has carried the team throughout this run,Could it be that Kevin Correia was the steal of the free agency crop and Paul Maholm has matured into a solid,above average major league starter?
Jeff Karstens is among the leaders in ERA,Charlie Morton has begun to harness his talent and James McDonald has rebounded after a slow point.
There is no reason that this cannot continue...

Counterpoint:
Look at the points and tell me that all or most of these players will continue to pitch this way all season.
I might give you McDonald and Morton maturing a bit and maybe one of Correia,Karstens and Maholm making 2011 their career year,but all of them?
That is asking a lot for three average pitchers at best to keep up high mark seasons for the entire year...


2) The Bullpen

Point:
The Bullpen will continue to be among the best in the game.
The bullpen has overwhelmed opponents after Neal Huntington has loaded the pen with power arms.
Joel Hanrahan is the best closer in the league to date,Chris Resop and Jose Veras have been pleasant surprises and Daniel McCutchen seems to have finally found his role.
Daniel Moskos and Tony Watson have been decent in their MLB debuts and maybe Evan Meek could return.
IF these guys pitch to this level,the starters could drop a bit and not cause the team to suffer....

Counterpoint:
Clint Hurdle has used these guys often in the first half,they are more likely to run out of gas as the second half goes on than to maintain their performance.
Jose Veras and Chris Resop have both shown some recent signs of weariness and you cannot rely on two rookie lefties out of the pen as your only two southpaws without some growing pains...

3) Players returning from injury will upgrade the team further..

Point:
The Pirates can only improve when the rash of injuries subsides and players begin to come back.
Ryan Doumit instantly improves the catching position and if Pedro Alvarez hits in the manner he usually does after an adjustment period,the Pirates upgrade the offense immensely without making a deal at all.
Jose Tabata returns to bolster the outfield,Steve Pearce as a lefty killer and pinch hit bat and Ronny Cedeno back at shortstop and the team is almost brand new in some ways.
Toss in Joe Beimel as a lefty veteran to relieve the stress on Watson and Moskos and the team improved before any deals at all....

Counterpoint:
All that sounds good,but in most cases,decisions will have to be made with those players against the players that has actually helped the team make such first half strides.
Doumit brings a better bat,but his well known defensive deficiencies will take some of his advantages away.
Alvarez should improve,but I was saying all through the year before he got hurt.
To play Tabata,the Pirates will have to sit or send down the sizzling Alex Presley and I would argue the Pirates need a better shortstop than erratic Cedeno to begin with,let alone celebrate a return.
Plus,you know your team has issues when Joe Beimel is being heralded as a solution to your woes....

4) The veterans signed in the off season will prove to be crucial to the second half.

Point:
Neal Huntington has gotten reasonable production from his signings and solid production from Kevin Correia.
Correia made the All-Star team,Matt Diaz is rounding into form after a strong last month and Lyle Overbay has been about what you would expect with the bat and helping the infield as expected with a strong glove.
There is reason to believe that all three could improve in the second half and at least two should...

Counterpoint:

I believe they will be crucial,just not helpful.
Kevin Correia will have to maintain this level of performance,which he has never been able to do before,Matt Diaz has yet to homer on a team in desperate need of power and Lyle Overbay has been a general waste of money,which most thinking people figured out to begin with.
Considering the players involved,I do not have one meaningful reason to expect that these three players will suddenly become second half contributors...

5:Will the Pirates be buyers or sellers before the trading deadline?

Point:
Buyers.The fanbase is starving for a contender and in lieu of that ,the string of losing seasons has an above average chance of being snapped.
The team is just one game out of first place and one or two additions could make the difference as long as none of the building block prospects are moved.
This is finally the chance for the front office to slam the door on the constant claims of being cheap and not caring about winning over making money.
Look at Milwaukee-you take your chance to win it when you can.....

Counterpoint:
Sellers. Neal Huntington knows that to many degrees that the first half was a mirage filled with crazy fluky wins and by players exceeding their normal numbers.
Huntington also knows that the plan could be busted by short term thinking.
Let's look at Milwaukee,who has gutted their farm system in an attempt to win this season and will possibly be the worst team in the division next year when those players walk.
The plan is to have a chance to compete every season and throwing valuable long term chips into the middle of the table for one year of glory isnt worth the risk.
Besides,the Pirates have to win the division as they have little chance at the wild card,having already given away seven games to the Atlanta Braves in that race.
Is it worth moving those prospects?I dont think so and I would even argue that if contenders want to make offers for some of the Pirate players of some value,you have to at least consider the offer even with the PR hit.
Paul Maholm has a nine million dollar option for next season,do you want to pay that money on the hope he continues to pitch well and the team stays in the race?
If some of the bats such as Garrett Jones,Lyle Overbay or Matt Diaz get even reasonable offers,you have to consider them and what a powerhouse team like New York,Boston or Philadelphia have bullpen issues and blow the Pirates away with an offer for Joel Hanrahan?
Enjoy this run,Pirate fans,but the plan needs to be stuck with and not changed over a few good months...

Hope you enjoyed this,I hope to be back later with some inbox cleaning and some more sad goodbyes....