Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Three Team Deal nets Indians Bauer and Stubbs

The Cleveland Indians participated in a three team trade with Arizona and Cincinnati that landed the Tribe four players including 2001 third overall draft pick Trevor Bauer and outfielder Drew Stubbs from the Reds.
The Tribe moved some players as well as their best outfielder Shin-Soo Choo is headed to the Reds along utility infielder Jason Donald,while reliever Tony Sipp and first baseman Lars Anderson were sent to the Diamondbacks as part of the trade.

The biggest piece of the deal is Trevor Bauer,who hit AA right after being drafted in 2011 and had a cameo appearance in Arizona last season.
Bauer comes with ace level potential,but is far from a guarantee as rumors of attitude issues,an insistence on his own throwing regimen,decreased velocity and some control issues last season all led to the Diamondbacks quietly shopping the smallish righthander that has been compared to Tim Lincecum in the past.
Bauer posted very good numbers at AA Mobile and AAA Reno,but did struggle a bit in September in Arizona.
Drew Stubbs is a fast,strong and good defensive outfielder and is just 28.
So what's not to like?
Well,severe contact issues (.213 last season) and tons of strikeouts (588 in 486 games) have made Stubbs a frustrating figure to a Reds fan.
Stubbs has decent pop (59 homers in his 3+ yr tenure) and runs very well (110 steals over the same time) and it is not unreasonable to hope for Stubbs to be a 20 homer,30-40 steals player.
It also could be that between Stubbs and recent signee Mark Reynolds that they could combine for 350 strikeouts causing holes in the Cleveland lineup.
I'm willing to give Stubbs a full season,but he might be a better fit as a 4th outfielder on a good team..

Cleveland also obtained two righthanded arms for the Indian bullpen in the deal in Bryan Shaw and Matt Albers.
The 25 year old Shaw has appeared in 97 in the last two seasons and was solid in keeping his ERA a little over three in the term.
Albers is 29,played for Terry Francona in Boston and is coming off his best MLB season with an ERA of just over two in a year split between Boston and Arizona.
Both should have spots in the Tribe corps.

Shin-Soo Choo will be a loss to a less than threatening lineup,but his highest value was now and the Indians were smart to move him.
Jason Donald is a light hitting infielder with little hope on holding a regular position,Lars Anderson is a faded prospect that never caught his stride at higher levels,while Tony Sipp was a decent lefty from the bullpen,but one that can be easily replaced.

Shin-Soo Choo was highly unlikely to re-sign with the Indians after the 2013 season and getting Bauer for Choo would have been a reasonable return,but adding Drew Stubbs to replace Choo in the outfield and add two arms for the bullpen makes this deal terrific at best and even if Bauer and Stubbs do not produce,the trade still could be looked back at as understandable at worst.
I have no idea what the real reasons were that Arizona went from taking Bauer over Dylan Bundy to trading him for Reds prospect Didi Gregorious and essentially some spare parts,but in my opinion,they did not get fair value.
The deal seems like a good gamble for Cleveland (especially considering they kept Asdrubal Cabrera to make another deal) and my question is why Arizona did their portion of this deal.
Unless the Diamondbacks really wanted to move Bauer for some of the rumored reasons or they liked Didi Gregorious a lot,I have trouble understanding why the Diamondbacks were interested.....

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