Sunday, September 9, 2018

Cleveland Browns Preview

The Cleveland Browns have been awful over the last two seasons- historically awful with a 1-31 record that could have been 0-32 if not for a blocked field goal and a field goal attempt that drifted wide with a rushed attempt with the clock rolling in their only win over the Chargers.
Add three losses to end the 2015 season under Mike Pettine and the Browns are 1-34 after their final 2015 win.

John Dorsey has brought his broom with him from Kansas City and he has swept out over half the roster from last year already.
Can the Browns be improved after Dorsey's cleanup? I'd think so, but let's take a look before our final prediction.

The quarterback room was quickly emptied and then filled with new toys for Hue Jackson and new offensive coordinator Todd Haley to play with.
Baker Mayfield was taken as the franchise quarterback and even though I am very dubious of Mayfield in such a role, he did show signs that gave me some hope in pre-season play.
The Browns avoided the temptation to throw Mayfield in from day one as the Jets are doing with Sam Darnold (My personal QB pick in the draft) when they sent a third-round draft pick to Buffalo for veteran Tyrod Taylor to mind the store for 2018.
Taylor is the type of journeyman passer that doesn't lose you games but rarely wins them either.
However, considering the various quarterbacks that the Browns have used, if Taylor can just be steady, avoid mistakes and keep Baker Mayfield to a late-season appearance, he's more than done his job.
Veteran Drew Stanton was signed as a free agent to be the third quarterback and the sage voice in Mayfield's ear in the QB room and on the sidelines as the veteran mentor that the 2017 Browns didn't have at all.

The Browns also overhauled the running back position as the backs are all new with the exception of Duke Johnson, who will continue in his role as the pass-catching back and the most versatile of all the backs.
Carlos Hyde of the 49ers was a popular signing with his Ohio State history from the free agent crop.
Hyde won the starting position and will be given the chance to hold it from the start of the year.
Nick Chubb was drafted in the second round from Georgia and had the most carries in the pre-season, but is the backup for now.
Cleveland is just carrying three runners for now, but I think you will see them sign another early in the season or bring Dontrell Hilliard up from the practice squad.

The Browns receivers could be the most improved position group on the roster between the hoped-for return to form of Josh Gordon and the trade that brought Jarvis Landry to Cleveland from the Dolphins.
If Gordon has retained his deep speed and is able to open up the middle for Landry, the Browns might have a pretty fun offense to watch.
Anything involving Gordon comes with many "If's", but we can at least hope anyway.
Gordon will be a backup to start the season after missing much of camp behind Florida fourth rounder Antonio Callaway, who comes with his own troubled background, but has as much talent as any drafted wideout.
Rashard Higgins, who I've always liked and never seemed to have a fair chance, made the team as the fourth receiver.
Higgins has nice hands and as a receiver that is drawing a lesser defensive back in coverage could have a good season.
Sixth-round pick Damion Ratley of Texas A&M and undrafted free agent Derrick Willies of Texas Tech round out the group with both playing special teams and fighting to find a little time in five-wideout sets.

The Browns are starting the season with four tight ends, although I don't think they will end the season with as many on the roster.
Second-year man David Njoku will start at tight end after a promising, but still uneven rookie season.
Njoku should at least be a strong target in the red zone and with his size and tools, the sky is the limit, if he is able to play up to his abilities.
Darren Fells was added as a free agent from the Lions to be the main blocking tight end and the backup to Njoku.
Seth DeValve has battled injuries in camp that didn't allow him to play in the pre-season and will be the main receiving backup to David Njoku.
DeValve's injuries allowed journeyman Orson Charles to make the team.
When DeValve is ready, the team will have to make a decision between him and Charles.

The offensive line returns just three players from last season's team and the Browns still haven't made an announcement on where their best offensive lineman will start.
My thought when training camp opened was that Joel Bitonio will shift over from left guard to left tackle, but there is a possibility that undrafted rookie Desmond Harrison could start there.
Harrison was a five-star recruit coming out of high school, but off the field issues caused him to leave Texas and settle in at Division II West Georgia.
With time to develop, Harrison has the tools to at least be a starting level tackle and maybe even a top-notch one, but that won't be this season most likely.
Bitonio is the Browns best lineman and is best suited at guard, but would have been the Browns best option at left tackle.
Second-round pick Austin Corbett would have started at left guard had Bitonio started at tackle, but still will see plenty of time in the rotation at tackle and guard.
Returning veterans Kevin Zeitler and JC Tretter will be the starters at right guard and center respectively with former Steeler Chris Hubbard starting at right tackle.
Austin Corbett, waiver claim Earl Watford along with former first rounder Greg Robinson provide the depth along the line.

The defense might be very good this season and it might only get better as the season goes on.
The defensive line had some changes at the final cutdown and pick of the waiver litter, some of which I would not have made.
Second-year man Myles Garrett finally looks to be healthy after a rookie year that never saw him reach full health, yet still notch a more than respectable seven sacks.
If Garrett is able to reach a level of dominance, this defense could be tough for offenses to face.
Emmanuel Ogbah returns at the other end after missing six games last season. I've always thought that Ogbah could be the Clyde Simmons to Garrett's Reggie White, but he'll have to stay on the field to do so.
Larry Ogunjobi and Trevon Coley start at the interior line spots after each performed well in their rookie seasons.
Ogunjobi, in particular, has stood out in camp and pre-season and might be more than ready to make the next step in his play.
All six reserves on the defensive line are new to Cleveland with four of them arriving after the final preseason game.
Devaroe Lawrence was acquired from the Saints for a seventh-round pick with Carl Davis (Baltimore) and Ifeadi Odenigbo (Minnesota) being claimed off waivers.
Chris Smith was signed from the Bengals in the offseason as a free agent and Chad Thomas was a third-round selection in the draft.
Anthony Zettel had a strong season with Detroit in 2018 (6.5 sacks), but was waived after being caught up in a defensive alignment change that saw him (a 4-3 end) out of sync in a defense (3-4 multiple) not suited to his skills.
Zettel is a high energy player that is going to see more and more time on the field as the season moves on but may not see a lot of action in week one, having been claimed on the Thursday before the opener.

The starting linebackers from last season all return with Jamie Collins back from injury.
Pro Bowler Joe Schobert mans the middle with Collins (strong side) and Christian Kirksey (weak side) on the outside and it is a pretty good group, not a great one, but a solid one.
What concerns me about this bunch is that they remind me of so many Browns linebacking corps-they don't make big plays, they are players that make tackles downfield.
Perhaps that changes with better players up front and a better pass rush, but I'm not going to bet on it.
Still, they won't hurt you any and especially with Schobert and Kirksey, there is still potential for growth.
James Burgess is back as a backup and Tanner Vallejo was claimed from Buffalo to provide depth and add a strong special teamer.
The player that I really like and could be one of those playmakers that the Browns lack eventually is fifth-round pick Genard Avery of Memphis.
I think Avery is going to see time this season and might be able to allow the Browns to let Jamie Collins and a big contract walk at the end of the season when they could buy him out rather than pay him 10 and 12 million for 2019 and 2020.

The secondary still is the biggest question mark for me.
Denzel Ward was taken with the fourth pick in the draft to be the Browns shutdown cornerback and I think he has that type of ability.
Still, very few corners don't have growing pains and Ward will more than likely be going up against the opposition's best receiver every game, so expect some troubles as he gains experience.
None of the other five cornerbacks that made the team were Browns last season.
Former Chief Terrance Mitchell will be given the first shot at starting opposite Ward, but other could supplant him particularly EJ Gaines, who had a strong season in Buffalo last year but has hardly played in camp with injuries.
Denzel Rice and Travis Carrie come from elsewhere and rookie Tavarre Thomas was claimed away from the Cardinals to provide the depth.

The safeties have a new face at free safety in Damarious Randall, who John Dorsey traded DeShone Kizer to the Packers to add to the roster.
Randall missed the latter part of the pre-season but is expected to open the season against the Steelers in the lineup.
Jabrill Peppers will try to avoid the bust label after a year spent playing safety as far back as Lake Erie.
The Browns will try to allow Peppers to be nearer to the line of scrimmage as the strong safety in an attempt to allow him to try to be the playmaker that they drafted him to be out of Michigan.
If this doesn't work out, then I'm not sure the Browns have anything else that they can do with him.
Briean Boddy-Calhoun will be a nickel back that can either cover a receiver or drop back and Derrick Kindred gave Peppers all that he wanted in camp to win the strong safety position and should see plenty of playing time.

The kicking game returns all three starters in kicker Zane Gonzalez, punter Dustin Colquitt, and long snapper Charley Hughlett.
Antonio Callaway and Jabrill Peppers will be the main returners on kickoffs and punts, but if the Browns struggle using two starters in the return positions, I would not surprised to see them sign a running back with kick return capabilities.

Now to the portion that all of you love- the record.
I used to hear from you that I was always too pessimistic about the results.
That was until I've pretty much nailed the last three seasons.
2015: 3-13 predicted 3-13 result
2016: 2-14 predicted 1-15 result
2017  3-13 (or worse) predicted 0-16 result.

My point is that I was criticized for years for being too gloomy and the last three, I've said they'd be crummy and they were worse!

The Browns are going to win a few games and I think they have a good chance of starting 2-2 with a home game against the Jets (and rookie QB Sam Darnold, sniffle) and a road game against the suddenly in chaos Oakland Raiders possible wins.
The following two home games after Oakland against Baltimore and the L.A Chargers are important-If they could somehow come out of that 3-3 and a possible win in Tampa Bay after that, the Browns could be 4-3.
They'll need those wins because their next three games are likely underdogs at Pittsburgh and against Kansas City and Atlanta.
Now to the final six games with four on the road and two by Lake Erie with a home and home vs Cincinnati, travels to Houston, Denver and Baltimore and the remaining home game against Carolina.
Only in maybe the home game vs the Bengals, could the Browns be favored and only maybe Denver at a tough place to play can you see a road upset.

I don't see it.
I see a much-improved roster and I see the potential if everything falls perfectly for a 6-10 season/
That's the ceiling.
The floor?
Well, if the Browns split that Jets/Raiders run or heavens forbid lose both, the wheels could go flying off the train.
I might even go as far to say a 0-4 start might see Hue Jackson gone and Todd Haley or Gregg Williams in as the interim coach (More likely Haley, but both have head coaching experience).

The only game that I feel is a must win is the home game against the Jets in week three.
If Sam Darnold comes into Cleveland on a nationally televised Thursday night and lights up the Browns, it not only would be a loss, it would be a huge shot to the goodwill that John Dorsey has built up- you want a must-win? It's that one!
I'm putting the floor at 2-14.
I think the floor would see two wins out of this group (Jets, at Raiders, at Buccaneers, Bengals and maybe at Broncos).

That sets the ceiling and the floor.
I'll split the difference and call it 4-12 with the Hue Jackson era ending either midway through the season or on Black Monday.
Hue Jackson continues to make some puzzling decisions and lord forbid that the decision to start Desmond Harrison cause an injury to Tyrod Taylor and a resulting force-feeding of Baker Mayfield that the Browns are trying to avoid, so he's likely putting his chips into the middle of the table for a decent start to the season.

Hope you enjoyed the season preview and I'll have coverage of the Browns opener with Pittsburgh on Monday!






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