Wednesday, January 17, 2018

Busy Buccos cutting costs-Part One

I started this post and as I did, the Pirates made another trade, but I'm going to cover that in my next post in order to give this one the coverage that it deserves.

The Pittsburgh Pirates started their revamp (rebuild) with the trade of Gerrit Cole to the Houston Astros for four players, three of which are expected to make the Pirates this season.

The loss of Cole seems like a bit of a risk to move him this soon after signing last week to a contract for the 2018 season for 6.75 million and would have had him for one more season in 2019, although that would have been under double figure millions most likely with possible arbitration in the wings as well.
Still, Cole's numbers did dip some in 2017 after an injury-shortened 2016 and it can be argued that he only has truly only notched one elite-level season, so if you are afraid of another average season that would see a similar return down the road and see Cole still earn large raises through arbitration, the argument can be made that making the move makes sense.

However, if you buy in on the time being acceptable to move Cole, I still question the package coming back from the Astros.
The main piece for me is 25-year-old righthanded pitcher Joe Musgrove, who was tremendous in the second half of the season as a reliever for the Astros (31 strikeouts in 23 appearances and hitters hit under .200 against him) but was nothing special at all in his 15 starts in his second year in the bigs.
For the season, Musgrove finished with an ERA of 4.77 but throws hard and Joe Werner (our prospect guru) says that for his money he doesn't see that much difference in his data and opinions between Musgrove and Cole period.
While I remember liking what I saw from Musgrove when I saw him pitch for AA New Hampshire when Musgrove was in the Blue Jays system, that seems to be a bit of a stretch to me.
The Pirates intend on installing Musgrove in the rotation, so I suppose we'll see soon enough, but still, Musgrove should at least be solid enough in PNC Park, which helps pitchers much more than Houston's Minute Maid Park.

The other main player in the deal is expected to be the Pirates starting third baseman in Colin Moran.
The 25-year-old former first-rounder of the Marlins in 2013 will be joining his third organization and has made just 37 plate appearances in the big leagues, although Moran was hitting well in seven games last year with the Astros before a facial injury caused by fouling a ball off straight up into his eye.
Moran has always hit for average through the minors but had never hit for power (10 homers had been his high) before last season when an adjustment to his swing saw Moran hit 18 homers at AAA Fresno, where he hit .308 in 79 games before his promotion to Houston.

Moran is a very slow runner ( when Moran appeared in Hagerstown with Low A Greensboro, we were all struck by just how slow the then 22-year-old third baseman was and we all wondered even then how long he was going to be able to play there) and he lacks range and athleticism defensively at third.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Moran hit for a decent average, but do it without great power, clog lots of bases, and be a defensive liability, but there is a chance that he is one of these players that has caught the latest novelty in baseball of "swing plane" and increasing the loft of his connections and could see his game change because of it.
However, from what I have seen as of today, I would think that there is a better chance of Moran being a "4 A " player than an above-average everyday major leaguer and I wonder about depending on him to be the third baseman on a regular basis...

The Pirates always seem to love to add hard throwers to add to their bullpen in almost every trade that Neal Huntington makes and this one was no exception as Michael Feliz was the third player involved.
Feliz, a 24-year-old hard-throwing 6'4 righthander, spent the last two years in the Houston bullpen with far better numbers in 2016 than last season as Feliz posted an ERA of 5.63 in 46 appearances (48 innings).
However, Feliz still notches highly in the stat number that I love most- Strikeouts Per 9 at 13.1- 70 whiffs in those 48 innings, so the gas is there even when the command isn't and therefore has been and still is the issue with Feliz.
After all, there is an issue with a power arm and strikeout numbers like those or they wouldn't be giving him away, now would they?
The Pirates have found success with similar projects before, most recently Felipe Rivero, and there is plenty to like with Feliz's arm, so there is upside here, but plenty of polishing and patience will be needed...

The final player in the deal is a lottery ticket in outfielder Jason Martin.
The 22-year-old Martin split last season between High A Buies Creek and AA Corpus Christi and hit .278/18/66 with 16 steals at the two levels.
I saw Martin a little at Frederick and the left-handed hitter came into 2017 with a 23-homer season at High A Lancaster (then the Houston High A affiliate), but the Astros felt Martin needed to at least start the season at the same level (All California league parks are hitters paradises) as Martin had struck out 108 times in 400 at-bats.
Martin didn't improve much on that in 2017 (124 SO in 474 AB's) and contact is going to be the major hurdle that he'll need to get past if he is going to make the big leagues as a contributor.
Martin has some speed and I could see him maybe being a backup outfielder, but he has plenty of work to do to be more than that.
I would expect him to be assigned to AA Altoona, but there is a chance the Pirates could assign him to AAA Indianapolis to start the season.

Honestly, I'm going to say this, I think the Pirates moved too soon on this trade.
Maybe they know something I don't about Cole (maybe his arm isn't 100%?) and they wanted to get something rather than nothing later?
But if that's not the case, I'm not impressed with the return.
I like Joe Musgrove, but he did pitch far better from the Houston bullpen than in his 15 starts and the Pirates will be relying on his skills in the rotation.
I'm not nearly as big of a fan of Colin Moran as others are, Michael Feliz has a big arm, but big arms with command problems aren't hard to find and Jason Martin is a decent prospect, but not a sure-fire blue chip by any means at all.

I think the Pirates could have done better by waiting or accepting offers from elsewhere (not that I really know what those would be for sure), but time will tell, which of us was correct on this one.
Next post More Pirates talk as Andrew McCutchen heads for San Francisco...


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