Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Spence vs Crawford- Finally?!

   Errol Spence's recent tenth round TKO stoppage of Yordenis Ugas not only gave him three of the four welterweight titles in boxing, but it also gave him a chance to be a man of his word.

For the last few years, whenever Spence was asked about Terence Crawford and the biggest fight that could be made in a division under wherever Canelo Alvarez is fighting at a given time, Spence's reply would be that he wanted to only face PBC fighters (with the common "wrong side of the street" quote) and once he cleaned all of those fighters out, he would then be happy to face Terence Crawford.

Spence has now done so and he stated that he is now ready to face Crawford in one of the few bouts in boxing that you could legitimately have a solid opinion on why either fighter will emerge victoriously and yet remain a 50/50 fight.

While the fight between the best two welterweights in the world is long overdue, one can make an argument that it hasn't been quite overcooked to past its expiration date.

Crawford's knockout win over Shawn Porter last November was the biggest win of his career and Spence's win over Yordenis Ugas to add a third championship to his coffers may have been his biggest with Ugas coming off a win that retired Manny Pacquiao, although you could also say that Spence's wins over Porter or either Danny or Mikey Garcia will wear just as well after Spence's career is completed.

The time is right with interest at a record high from even some casual fans to make the welterweight division's biggest full unification fight with two undefeated champions since the 1985 pairing of Donald Curry and Milton McCrory (Remember that the unification between Oscar De La Hoya and Felix Trinidad did not have the WBA title involved as it was held by James Page at the time).

Assuming that a deal can be made and for the first time, both fighters, Spence's promoter (PBC) and Crawford without a promoter to add to the mix since his contract with Top Rank expired after the knockout of Shawn Porter, all parties seem to motivated for this fight to happen in the fall. 

If I was Crawford, I'd never agree to the fight taking place in Spence's native Texas, where the commission and judges are terrible and the commission head Dickie Cole will likely strongarm his son Lawrence into refereeing the bout and it's rare that a Lawrence Cole officiated affair doesn't have a degree of controversy.

Las Vegas or Los Angeles is likely the site with the Barclays Center in Brooklyn a dark horse contender but allow me to offer an idea that is unlikely to be accepted to hold the fight.

Wichita Kansas isn't known as a boxing hotbed but neither was Omaha, Nebraska until Crawford came along but it has two things that make sense for this fight.

Omaha has been known for its strong support of Terence Crawford and the converse is true for Errol Spence's fan base in Dallas, so I am sure that fans of both fighters would love to support their champion in the legacy-defining fight of their career.

Wichita has a nice facility in the 15,000-seat InTrust Bank Arena, has a population of close to 400,000, and most importantly- happens to be almost halfway between Dallas and Omaha (301 miles from Omaha, 364 from Dallas) and can be almost a straight shot from I-75 from both areas.

In other words, a neutral site that has a nice building, both fan bases can make the trip and it's a drivable trip, if you choose not to fly,

The perfect place for all involved and an atmosphere that could be worthy of such a great fight, but my guess is no one has thought about it, and even if so, the chances are still slim.

As for the fight in the ring?

It's a boxing cliche to use the term "50-50 fight" but for a prospective Errol Spence-Terence Crawford fight that adage is deadly accurate.

One can make a very good case for a Spence win or a Crawford victory and neither could be dismissed very easily by even the most devout fan of either champion.

Spence is thought to be the bigger puncher yet it is Crawford that is the better finisher.

Crawford is thought to be the better boxer yet it is Spence that has fought the twelve-round distance more often.

Neither fighter scores many early-round knockouts but are considered to have above-average power.

Both fighters have good chins but have been unofficially dropped in recent fights that were scored as non-knockdowns (Crawford vs Egid Kavaliauskas, Spence vs Yordenis Ugas).

Spence is the naturally bigger and stronger fighter but Crawford appears to be the more fluid and naturally athletic boxer.

I believe that Spence is underrated as a boxer and Crawford is underrated as a puncher.

How do I see the fight playing out?

Often what happens when two elite fighters at their peak get into the ring is that their styles often reverse and if that happens that's definitely to the advantage of Terence Crawford.

Errol Spence doesn't fight as well off his back foot and should he be forced to box more than usual, the edge definitely swings to Crawford.

Spence is the better fighter from close range and if Spence is able to make this an inside affair, Spence should be the fighter that receives the most benefits.

Neither fighter is a particularly fast starter, so I think a chance of an early knockout is unlikely.

I think that the most likely scenario for a Spence win would be Spence slowly wearing Crawford down, taking his legs away, and dominating the late rounds for a decision win.

The most likely path for Crawford's victory would be mixing boxing and punching over the first half of the fight before changing styles in the middle rounds and stalks Spence as he busts him up around the eyes and wins via a late-round TKO or perhaps a battered Spence barely survives until the final bell before a decision win for Crawford.

I think this is the best fight that boxing can make and I think the styles should mesh well for sustained action, which isn't always the case (De La Hoya-Trinidad wasn't a great action fight despite the anticipation) and it had better be an action fight after the time and lengths taken in order to finally get these two fighters in the ring against each other.

I've been back and forth already on which fighter I lean towards but I'll reserve that choice until the fight is ready to take place- besides it gives me plenty of time to change my mind... 

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