I Tell Ya' Herbie

    With the final weekend of the college football regular season set to start, it's time for the last regular season version of I Tell Ya' Herbie.

I Tell Ya' Herbie:

                              While both Ohio State and Michigan have entered The Game unbeaten several times in the past, and with conference titles and national prestige at stake, this Saturday's clash in Ann Arbor has those and even more.

In fact, this might be the biggest The Game of them all when everything is considered.

 For Ohio State, it's breaking a two-game losing streak, keeps Ryan Day from hearing the name John Cooper with every other sentence or paragraph, and takes some credibility away from the previous two losses considering the sign-stealing scandals at Michigan.

For Michigan, it's all about credibility-lose this game without Jim Harbaugh on the sideline and suddenly it appears that the scandal was legitimate, the "Michigan Men" were so desperate to win that they had to cheat, and there is an asterisk beside the two previous wins and it's almost like Michigan is still on a losing streak.

Plus a loss won't shine well on Jim Harbaugh, even though he won't be there in person, and a loss could mean that this could be the last game that Harbaugh coaches at Michigan.

Toss in a Big Ten title appearance at stake and a likely berth to the CFP ( unless you think offensively challenged Iowa could beat either school) and It's not hyperbole to say this could be the biggest game ever between these two teams and that says it all.

I Tell Ya' Herbie:

                             Friday's Texas Tech at Texas game will be the final time that these two hook up for a while with Texas leaving for the SEC next year and no future games scheduled between the two.

Tech looks at Texas as more of a rival than vice versa but the games between the two are usually competitive and hard-fought with more than its share of wacky endings.

I'll miss the series and Tech now lacks a true rival to despise.

It will take some time as the new Big 12 doesn't have many schools close to Lubbock and many of its schools are in the same boat with lost rivals.

For now, I'd say the most likely to eventually become the Red Raiders "big game" might be one of their old SWC members TCU, Baylor, or Houston but it is going to take time.

The Chancellor's Spurs trophy which Texas and Texas Tech started in 1996 will reside with the winner until the rivalry will eventually be resumed.

I Tell Ya' Herbie:

                             The AAC race is coming down to the wire with three schools without a conference loss entering the final game.

Fortunately, the schedule will sift things down to the final two for the league title game next week as two of the teams will play each other on Friday as UTSA visits Tulane.

The winner of that is guaranteed a title game ticket, while 7-0 SMU hosts Navy (5-5 overall), and a Mustang victory would punch their ticket to the title matchup.

I'm not sure who would win a tie-breaker between SMU (if they lose) or the UTSA-Tulane loser but the conference has to be happy with such a race to the finish.

I Tell Ya' Herbie:

                            The other crazy race is in the Big 12 where Texas leads at 7-1 and three schools (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State) are all at 6-2 for the two Big 12 championship game slots.

The two teams that control their own destiny are Texas and Oklahoma State but that's if it stays that way after this week.

If Texas Tech beats Texas and all three 6-2 teams win, which is possible as none of them play each other, the league would have a four-way tie for two spots and I don't know how that tiebreaker would play out.

Without knowing who wins the tiebreaker, Mike Gundy's Cowboys could get into the game with a win but also could win and perhaps not make it in should Texas lose.

Wild!

                  

I tell ya' Herbie

Our weekly notebook on college football starts with a complaint and an excellent group of five game this week in the AAC.

I tell ya' Herbie:
                          American Athletic Conference commissioner Mike Aresco suggests there is a double standard against his league on two levels.
The first is his league is underrated against the power five and the other is that his league is held to a higher standard than the other group of five schools.
Aresco might have a mild case in the former, but still, the AAC's small disrespect isn't enough to make a difference in the big picture as even if they were as respected as possible, it wouldn't make enough of a difference to reach the final four.
Aresco's complaint in the group of five rankings is that his teams sometimes are underrated vs the other four conferences weaker schools as he doesn't feel that his third-place SMU Mustangs with one loss deserve to be behind one-loss teams such as the Mountain West's Boise State and especially the Sun Belt's Appalachian State.
Aresco points to his conference's tougher schedule as why his teams are better and he may have a point, but it's always going to be tough in the G-5 for one conference to have the top three teams.

I tell ya' Herbie:
                          Aresco's other complaint could come with his league with the deepest amount of quality schools out of the group of five, looking out at another conference earning the group of five bid to the New Years Bowls.
How so?
His two division leaders (Cincinnati and Memphis) playing each other this Saturday and could play each other again in the AAC title game.
Cincinnati holds a two-game lead in their division, but Memphis is tied with SMU and Navy in their division (SMU and Navy play each other Saturday) and should Cincinnati win along with the SMU-Navy winner winning their final game, it would be a bit different, but should Memphis win this game and then Cincinnati win the rematch, the AAC champion would have two losses and likely not receive the bid as the rules stipulate the G-5 bid go to a conference champion.
On this, I can understand Aresco's problem.
Cincinnati vs Memphis could be the game of the day on a day that will see Ohio State host Penn State and several rivalry games.

I tell ya' Herbie:
                          I'm torn on Tom Herman's Texas Longhorns.
On one hand, Herman's Horns are just 6-4 after a season with big expectations.
On the other, Texas has three of those losses to ranked teams (LSU, Oklahoma, and Iowa State) by 7,7, and 2 points and a ten-point loss at occasionally explosive TCU.
Junior QB Sam Ehrlinger has thrown for almost three thousand yards, 27 TD"s and only eight interceptions, but his offensive line has already allowed 26 sacks with two games to go.
After a Sugar Bowl year, Texas has to be considered a disappointment, but in 2020 Texas has to be all-in as the team will be completely Herman recruited and if Ehrlinger returns, Texas will not have any excuse for anything less than a double-digit amount of victories.

I tell ya' Herbie:
                          I don't understand how anyone other than the most fervent Alabama homer can boost the Crimson Tide for the playoff after their loss to LSU and the following week's injury to Tua Tagovailoa in their game against Mississippi State.
Bama's best wins would be over Texas A&M (currently 7-3, but the Aggies final games are road games against 4th ranked Georgia and top-ranked LSU, so likely to finish 7-5) and assuming they defeat currently 15th rated Auburn, an 8-4 Tigers team.
Add the weak schedule to the season-ending injury to Heisman contender Tagovailoa and unless several things occur such as Baylor defeating Oklahoma in their Big 12 title game, either Oregon or Utah losing a game before the end of the season and then the other wins their Pac 12 title matchup, Clemson losing a game before the end of the season and perhaps even a non-Ohio State Big Ten champion, Alabama would deserve to be on the outside of the final four.
I give teams breaks on non-conference schedules if they try to play at least one tough team when the contract was signed as often times teams that are strong when you schedule them but aren't but the time in between scheduling and the actual games, but Bama doesn't even have that luxury as no one can defend Duke being the best team on a non-conference schedule.
Had Bama scheduled someone such as Florida State, which would have been a power when scheduled, but aren't currently, I would give them far more leeway than I am willing to do now.

I tell ya' Herbie:
                          Remember last week when I wrote that Minnesota was sitting on a loss against Iowa coming off a program-defining win over Penn State?
Well, now it's the Hawkeyes with the target on them as suddenly surging Illinois arrives on a four-game winning streak that not only has made the Illini bowl-eligible but may have saved Lovie Smith's job.
This has possible upset all over it and the only thing that keeps me from picking Illinois as the winner with certainty is that the Hawkeyes will be at home at Kinnick Stadium.

I tell ya' Herbie:
                          I've been asked two questions about this column, so I'll answer briefly.
One is why I don't mention Ohio State often here.
I figure I write about the Buckeyes enough in other posts, so I try to keep OSU out of "Herbie" unless something is really interesting and yet doesn't fit in game recaps.
The other is why does the top five for the power five, group of five and the Heisman only appear on occasion?
Answer; I'm an idiot and forget them sometimes!
Still, these will change from week to week, such as Tua Tagovailoa rated fourth in the Heisman rating now, but will fall as the season moves on and Alabama rated fourth currently, but will likely be passed as other teams win bigger games and conference championships.

Top Five's

Power Five
1) LSU
2) Ohio State
3) Clemson
4) Alabama
5) Oklahoma

Group of Five
1) Cincinnati
2) Memphis
3) Boise State
4) SMU
5) Appalachian State

Heisman
1) Joe Burrow QB LSU
2) Chase Young DE Ohio State
3) Jalen Hurts QB Oklahoma
4) Tua Tagovailoa QB Alabama
5) Jonathan Taylor RB Wisconsin