The Newest Indians

The nine (after the Padres receive their PTBNL) player trade between the Cleveland Indians and San Diego Padres sent away one of the better pitchers in the game in Mike Clevinger.

We covered that last time but from the side of what San Diego was receiving in the swap.
This time, it's all about the six players joining the Cleveland organization, how they will fit, and what I think of the trade as of this writing.
The prospects to me are more interesting than the major leaguers acquired and with prospects, there is always hope.

The top prospect in the trade is shortstop Gabriel Arias.
The twenty-year-old from Venezuela had a breakout 2019 with the bat at High A Lake Elsinore, hitting .302 with 17 homers and 75 RBI in 477 at-bats.
However, there is one word of caution- the California League is a hitters league filled with small ballparks that have the bonus of baseballs carrying well into the air.
Arias hit only six homers in 2018 for Low A Fort Worth, so I'm skeptical of this power improvement being a Cal League flash in the pan.
I'll need to see a 2021 season with the improved power levels to feel comfortable with projecting his future power potential.
Arias is reported to have a plus glove, so it's easy to see that the Indians think that Arias could be the eventual replacement for Francisco Lindor.
Cleveland does have a shortstop prospect in Tyler Freeman, but Arias would have the advantage if his power is real.

Lefthanded pitcher Joey Cantillo is a twenty-year-old pitcher from Hawaii that spent most of 2019 with Low A Fort Wayne before three late-season starts at High A Lake Elsinore.
Cantillo is 6'4 and is noted to have a very deceptive delivery with Joe Werner reporting that Cantillo has an above-average curveball and a "Vulcan" changeup (love the Mr.Spock reference).
Cantillo was 9-3 with a 1.93 ERA and 128 strikeouts in 98 innings in the Midwest League, which is an excellent ratio and the first thing that I look at in evaluating lower level pitchers.
Cantillo finished 1-1 with an ERA over four in those three late-season starts at Lake Elsinore along with striking out 16 in 13 innings.
I'm very intrigued by Cantillo and with the Indians track record of developing pitchers Cantillo could be an excellent addition.

Owen Miller was the Padres third-round pick in 2018 from Illinois State and spent all of 2019 at AA Amarillo, where he hit .290 with 13 homers in 507 at-bats.
Miller played shortstop at Amarillo but is considered to be a second baseman or a utility player at the big league level.
Miller is compared to Adam Frazier by Joe Werner and I can see the comparison with a little bit of pop and be able to play around the infield.
Miller will turn 24 before 2021, so he may have a chance to fight for a job in Cleveland in 2021, depending on what the Indians off-season may bring as far as moves and how many of them.

The big leaguers that were immediately brought to Cleveland are a trio of prospects that have disappointed to various degrees in San Diego and are players that I wonder just what the Indians have gotten themselves into.

Josh Naylor was installed as the Indians left fielder, but defensively he is better suited to stay at first base, and at 5'11, 250 pounds might wind up being a big liability.
The Indians outfield situation is a mess, so they are looking to try almost anything to boost the lineup at this point.
Naylor was hitting .270 with a homer in thirty-seven at-bats for San Diego this year after hitting .249 with eight homers last season in 253 rookie at-bats for the Padres.
Naylor was obtained from Miami after the Marlins picked him in round one in 2015. I do think that a positive is Naylor's splits away from Petco Park are impressive, so I think Naylor has a chance to hit but I'm not sure that he'll ever be an outfielder.

Cal Quantrill struggled as a starter for San Diego last season as a rookie finishing 6-8 with an ERA over five in 23 appearances (18 starts).
The 2016 first-rounder from Stanford struck out only 89 in 103 innings and allowed 15 homers in an unimpressive rookie season, especially when you consider that he pitched in one of the best parks for pitchers in the majors.
Quantrill pitched better this season after being moved to the bullpen with an ERA of 2.60 in ten appearances (one start) and he doesn't walk many either (28 in 2019, only six this year).
Quantrill sits in the low 90s and has two nice breaking pitches in his changeup and slider.

Austin Hedges is a glove-first catcher that has power but doesn't make enough contact to play every day.
That's too bad because defensively, Hedges is all you could ask for, but he's basically Sandy Leon with power.
Hedges was hitting only .158 with San Diego this season, but among his nine hits were three homers.
Hedges hit 18 homers in 2017 and 14 more in 2018 but hit only .214 and .231 in those seasons and his 2019 was worse with an average of .176 and eleven homers.
Hedges will be a reasonable backup for Roberto Perez, but that's about all that you can expect.

In the end, the Indians decided  (or were forced because the Padres refused) to follow the Pirates return when they traded Gerrit Cole to Houston- quantity over a few elite prospects.
Ask the Pirates how that turned out and perhaps San Diego wasn't offering those players, but I'm thinking this is an average package.
I like the prospect end of the trade as Arias and Miller could eventually be part of the Cleveland infield and Cantillo has some upside, but I wouldn't say any are can't miss prospects.

I am even less thrilled with the big league portion.
Josh Naylor may have been hurt by Petco Park, but I'm concerned that the Indians are trying to make him an outfielder and he might have to be a first baseman sooner than later- maybe as soon as next year if the Indians refuse the Carlos Santana option.
I'm hopeful of Naylor hitting in Cleveland, but he could be this deal's Matt LaPorta as well.
Quantrill has disappointed as a starter, but I do have confidence with the Indians work with pitchers, so while I am not confident that Quantrill will be more than an effective relief arm, there is a chance that he could be refined a bit.
Hedges is only a backup that can hit an occasional homer

I'd say the Indians return is okay.
Not great, not awful- Okay.
I'm not sure that you are able to rebuild quickly with returns such as these, but it's possible for a better return.
If Quantrill is able to return to what made him a top prospect and if Naylor can reach his power potential and play even a passable left field, this could be an excellent deal.
However, for now- the return is only okay.

The teardown begins- Indians send Clevinger to San Diego

The beginning of the program for the Cleveland Indians that was expected to begin in the offseason started a bit early as the Indians made an early trade on the final day before the trade deadline.

Cleveland sent pitcher Mike Clevinger, spare outfielder Greg Allen, and the notable PTBNL to the San Diego Padres for three players off the Padre major league roster and three more from the deep San Diego minor league system as Cleveland will be exploring one of three directions for the 2021 season.

Cleveland obtained pitcher Cal Quantrill, first baseman/outfielder Josh Naylor, and catcher Austin Hedges from the Padres major league roster with shortstop Gabriel Arias, second baseman Owen Miller, and pitcher Joey Cantillo from the San Diego system.
I'll be writing about the Indians' newest arrivals tomorrow, but in this post, I want to write about the players leaving Cleveland.

The Indians had been rumored to have been shopping Clevinger after he and fellow pitcher Zach Plesac had violated the league's Covid-19 policy and then attempted to conceal that fact to the team and his teammates.
Clevinger (and Plesac) were assigned to the Indians minor-league center in Eastlake (Lake County) and the end result had Clevinger not making a start for twenty-one days before his start last Wednesday against the Twins, allowing two runs over six innings in a no-decision for the righthander.
Clevinger was 1-1 with twenty-one strikeouts and an ERA of 3.18 in four starts this season after winning thirteen games in each of the two previous seasons.
Clevinger is arbitration-eligible and the Padres will have two years of control over him, which helped in the Indians receiving the amount of talent that they did in the trade as he will not be a rental for the Padres.
Clevinger turns thirty after the season, so he would hit free agency at thirty-two, which is a little old for a player to hit the market for the first time and even more so for a pitcher.
Plus there is some reason to think that Clevinger could eventually break down with a high effort delivery and mechanics that are always going to be on the verge of going off-kilter.
Between all of that and Clevinger's history of nagging injuries that have caused him to miss time (although none of those injuries were to his shoulder or elbow), I can see why the time was right to strike if the Indians really liked this six-pack from San Diego.


Greg Allen was the other player heading from Cleveland to the West Coast.
The speedy Allen was hitting .160 with a homer for the Indians in twenty-five at-bats this season and hit .229 with four homers last season in splitting his season between Cleveland and AAA Columbus,
At 27 years of age, Allen profiles as a fifth outfielder that will fit the role of a late-inning defensive replacement and pinch-runner, and should the Padres reach the postseason, Allen could be used in a similar manner as Kansas City used Terrance Gore in their playoff runs a few years ago.
Allen isn't quite as fast as Gore, but he can "pick them up and put them down" as they used to say and could be helpful in that spot for the Padres.

There is a player to be named and while it could be a low-level minor leaguer as a lottery ticket, please allow me to take a long shot at trying to figure out who the PTBNL could be.
Could it be Bradley Zimmer?
Zimmer's injury resume' has been vast and his bat has been anemic throughout his Cleveland tenure, never hitting above .241.
Given a chance earlier in this cameo of a season. Zimmer hit one homer in fifty plate appearances with five other singles for a batting average of .162.
Sometimes, players need a fresh start and with several outfielders of similar production on the roster currently, the Indians could be ready to cut bait with the Padres willing to risk next to nothing for Zimmer, who with his excellent defensive skills, should be a defensive upgrade for a backup outfielder in the vast expanse of Petco Park.

That's my take on what the Indians have given up, but what about the newcomers from San Diego?
I'll be writing about the new Indians in our next post.