Sunday, August 5, 2018

Pirates leap into deadline!

The Pittsburgh Pirates looked to be sellers a few weeks back if you looked forward to the trade deadline, but then something happened in Pittsburgh- the Pirates ripped off eleven wins in a row, leaped back into the wild-card race with a Bob Beamonesque leap and Neal Huntington suddenly had a decision to make- sell and basically tell his fan base that the franchise had decided to punt the season from the green flag, stand pat with a suddenly hot team or make some moves and try to make the postseason.

To my surprise, Huntington made not just one, but two moves and they were big ones for the Pirates, costing them several good prospects that might have Pirates fans looking at these trades for years as either the day the Pirates added some arms that turned them into contenders for a few years or the day the team overreacted to a win streak and dealt players that should have thrived in Pittsburgh.

Starting with the larger of the two trades (the second of the pair), the Pirates landed perhaps the biggest arm to change teams at the deadline as Pittsburgh added righthander Chris Archer from Tampa Bay for outfielder Austin Meadows, right-handed pitcher Tyler Glasnow, and a player to be named later.
That's quite a package of cost-controlled young talent to send away for an often financially challenged franchise, but let's look at what Pittsburgh acquired first before the lost prospects in Chris Archer.

The soon to be 30 year old Archer (turns 30 in September) has been the best pitcher on a bad team over the last few seasons (53 wins since 2013), has been durable (no trips to the DL since his 2013 call-up) and hasn't notched an ERA higher than his current 4.31, so this is a quality starter to slot into the rotation for the Buccos.
Add to that, Archer's very team friendly contract that has him under control for 2019  (7.5 million) at a minimum with two team option years for 2020 and 21 at a very affordable (9 and 11 million) cost as well and you can see why the Pirates paid what they paid in prospects.

However, there are a few caveats on Chris Archer.
The largest of these is that Archer never took the expected leap to the next level after 2014 and 15 seasons that would have seen him firmly in the Cy Young race on even an average team and his numbers although still good, are declining slightly.
It could be that Tampa dealt Archer just as he is at his highest value and just before Archer could be starting a steep decline.
Archer's strikeouts numbers are down a bit (a strikeout and a half per nine innings from last year) and his hits per nine innings are up one from last season and those make me at least wonder a bit about Archer.
Still, Archer is still about as safe as you can trade for at this stage and even if he gives the Pirates what he has given to the Rays this season for three and a half seasons, that's still enough to be in the upper half of the Pirate rotation and if he gives you what the 2015 Archer is capable of, the Pirates have a clear number one starter.

Here's the issue for the Pirates though- you don't get a pitcher like this for free and they sure didn't this time.
Tyler Glasnow has the type of arm that makes scouts drool and as he flew through the minors, Glasnow was thought to give the Pirates a contention window with three big righthanders with power arms with Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon, but for one small problem- every time that Glasnow was given a chance with the Pirates, he had problems finding the strike zone.
The Pirates placed him in their bullpen and despite the walks remaining high (34 in 34 appearances), the strikeouts were as well ( 72 in those 34 appearances) and to me to have an arm like this that hasn't turned 23 (He will later this month) that you seem to have given up on as a starter is incredibly short-sighted.
Perhaps the Pirates figured they had run out of answers for Glasnow's questions or that their staff couldn't get through to Glasnow or who knows what other thoughts that they have, but all I will write is this- when you have a 6'8 fireballer with that kind of stuff and you give up on him this soon- you had better hope you are right because those arms don't come along as a homegrown product every day.

Austin Meadows was thought to be the next starting young outfielder and was the natural long-term replacement for Andrew McCutchen.
McCutchen's trade to the Giants was thought to have opened the door for Meadows, but when the team traded with Tampa Bay to add veteran Corey Dickerson, that door closed until Meadows was given a shot in May and responded with a torrid first month in the bigs hitting over .400 with four homers in his first 13 games.
Meadows cooled off in his next forty games, but still seemed to be in their long-term plans between the veteran Dickerson and the erratic Gregory Polanco, but Tampa had to have wanted the cost-controlled Meadows in this deal to make it work.
I've always liked Meadows bat, but he has had problems staying healthy and with the way that Meadows had dropped off after his start, the Pirates had to have wondered at least a little.
Meadows was the best outfield prospect in the system as far as talent and was the nearest to the parent club as well, so this was not a player that the Pirates could easily trade away.
The departure of Meadows also puts a lot of heat on the Pirates to re-sign Corey Dickerson in the off-season, despite an arbitration number that might make a Dickerson re-signing oppressive, this trade almost makes that a must do rather than we'll see consideration.


The player to be named will be interesting as well.
Will it be a third higher level prospect ( O'Neil Cruz at low West Virginia is the best prospect position wise or pitcher Mitch Keller at AAA Indianapolis, which I would think is unlikely), a b-level player that is at Bradenton or Altoona or a lottery ticket from the lower end of the system?
Glasnow was added to the Tampa roster and Meadows was assigned to the Rays AAA affiliate in Durham after the deal,
This trade will be evaluated for years and many Pirates fans will be following Tampa box scores for quite a while.

Editor's Note; The PTBNL was pitcher Shane Baz, the Pirates 2017 first round selection,

The first trade saw the Pirates add to their bullpen with a trade with the Texas Rangers as they added closer Keone Kela, favorite of former TRS fan Brad Adams (If two people read this and ask, I'll write about the Kela story that I have to tell) and owner of 24 saves in 25 chances for the Arlington's in exchange for minor league lefty Taylor Hearn and a player to be named later.
The 25-year-old Kela pitched well for the Rangers in 2017 and 18, can close or fill a setup role and can even pitch in a semi-long role in a rare situation that calls for it.
Kela will be arbitration eligible, but the Pirates again have added a pitcher that gives them some control over his rights for a while.

The part that hurts is losing former Hagerstown Sun lefthander Taylor Hearn, who was having a breakout season at AA Altoona.
Hearn has an ERA of 3.12 in twenty starts, struck out 115 in 109 innings and held opposing hitters to under a .200 batting average.
Add that to a lefty that sits in the mid-90's and you have a southpaw that didn't seem to be far away from the big leagues.
This might be another pitcher that the Pirates might have wished hadn't gotten away.
Hearn was assigned to the Rangers AA squad in Frisco after the trade.

Give the Pirates credit, they saw an opening and for once- went for it.
For a team that is almost always questioned about finances, you have to give them credit for doing what they are usually criticized for not doing- giving themselves a chance to win.
However, you can argue (and time will answer this question) that the Pirates might have overreacted to a winning streak that put them in sight of a playoff spot (and that's really what the streak did put them in the running) and might have cost themselves as many as five young players that make the big leagues for a mirage of a playoff run.
They are valid questions to ask and I don't think that the answer is an easy one, mainly because I've been critical for the Pirates not being buyers when in the position to make sense to do so.
Still, looking at all things fairly, I lean to the side of not making the deal for Chris Archer.
Here's why- you didn't think that you were going to contend, which is why you moved Gerrit Cole for young players (Michael Feliz, Joe Musgrove, and Colin Moran) that were expected to make the parent club, yet weren't expected to make instant impacts on the lineups.
The team (in my opinion) traded better prospects for Archer than they received for Cole and yet the trade for Cole put the surprise contender in need for a pitcher.
Archer will be under team control longer than Cole, so that plays a part in those deals, but still, if you don't trade Cole, the need for Archer is not as great and so it goes down the line.
Now you lose players with the potential to help you down the road for what could be a mirage of a few weeks in one season and the risk is massive, particularly if Tyler Glasnow figures things out in Florida.
I understand the reasons why but consider me more than concerned about the end results of these trades.












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