Sunday, December 21, 2014

The Nightmare Season-Why the Devils are in trouble

If you are here for the Devils coverage,then you have either watched much of the disaster that is the New Jersey season or have been reading the posts here about the season and that cannot be fun.
I know that it hasn't been fun writing about it and what I worry the most about is that this franchise may get far worse before it gets better.

Lou Lamoriello has done so much for this franchise in building a tradition of championships,contention and high level hockey,but some of his recent decisions has made me wonder if the man who once set the gold standard from general managing wizardry has,like an aging pitcher,lost a few miles off his fastball and hasn't been able to adjust to the new competition.

Let's start with the biggest issue-the age of the roster.
The Devils are the oldest team in the league and they are hooked onto several long term contracts with players that have various issues that make things difficult to change things.
Mike Cammalleri has been the Devils best offensive player this season,but was looked at as having problems staying healthy before signing a five year contract at five million per year.
Sure enough,Cammalleri has missed several games already this season and with that long contract waiting down the road-I already wonder about that wisdom...
At least,Cammalleri has been productive,last season's signing of Ryane Clowe was questionable when the signing was announced with a history as long as your arm of head injuries/concussion issues.
Signing Clowe to anything more than a year or two or least an incentive based contract should have given any team a flashing neon sign that said-DANGER!!!
The Devils instead tossed Clowe a five year deal at 4.85 million per year and then watched as he predictably started missing time with-you guessed it-Head issues....
Clowe played only half the season last year and the Devils got 13 games out of him before he hit the injured list this year and who knows how long before he returns.
Add in the mind-blowing contract with Travis Zajac that has this year and SIX more years to go at just under six million a year and the Devils are paying a ton for less than average production with cap clogging contracts that Drano couldn't unplug.
Patrik Elias played well for one night against Tampa,but often has looked like he's lost two steps and nearing the end of the line.
Elias is being paid five and a half million for this season and next as well and despite all of his contributions to the franchise,is way overpaid for his tiny statistics thus far.
No team is taking those contracts let alone Dainius Zubrus ( this year and next ),Marek Zidlicky and Bryce Salvador ( this year) at roughly three million a year.
Every one of these have questions now and all looked questionable when they were signed.

I won't complain too much about locking Adam Henrique up long term,although four million per year seems to be somewhat of an overpayment and I wonder a little about Cory Schneider at this year and six more at six million a year.
The Devils are all in on Schneider and if he becomes what they hope,that is a fair enough deal with some risks to it as well.
Andy Greene's five year extension at five million per after what may be his career year might be looked at badly when the contract is over,but I'll defend the team on that one as the need to keep a quality veteran defenseman around with a team with tons of young prospects at the position was important and I might have done the same thing.

There aren't a lot of contract bargains on this team.
Scott Gomez has played well in his 10+ games,but even if he is productive at his low cost,he could either walk (free agent at seasons end) or even worse have the Devils give him a huge raise.
The fourth liners are productive enough for their costs,but no other forward other than maybe Jaromir Jagr (3.5 million,free agent at end of season) could be looked at as worth their cap hit.

Lou Lamoriello will have money to play with at seasons end,but with the noted deals above,can we as Devils fans, feel confident about his ability to spend it properly?
The Devils will have around nine million in contracts that expire from forwards if the team decides not bring back any of these free agents to be-Jaromir Jagr,Michael Ryder,Martin Havlat and Steve Bernier.
I'd bring back Bernier as he won't cost much,but the rest?
Jagr might retire or want to play for a winner at this stage of his career,Havlat has been a disappointment and Ryder is so deep in the doghouse,he is starting to get scratched.
That nine and another just under seven million in defensemen that could all be lived without in Bryce Salvador,Marek Zidlicky and Peter Harrold gives the team roughly 16 million to play with.

What scares me most right now is that the Devils seem to be in this situation.
Lou Lamoriello is 72 years old and he is trying to do the most difficult act in sports management-rebuilding on the fly.
Lou knows that he has no time to mess with a rebuild because his time is running out and that means veterans to keep that ship afloat,but sometimes you need to burn it to the ground and let the grass regrow.
The Devils do not seem to want to do that.
New Jersey has had two top ten picks in the last fifteen years and used them on Adam Larsson,(who has been badly mishandled by Peter DeBoer,more on him soon) and traded the other for Cory Schneider.
This is not a management group that appears to be in favor of rebuilding with youth.
Why is that besides the reason noted above?
Because of the market in which they play,the Devils (and the Islanders as well) need to be a playoff team in order to draw fans and when they are bad,attendance plummets.
A three team market enables fans to go to where the winners are and with the high price of NHL tickets,no one wants to go to see a loser when they can see a winner.
A young team is often a losing team,but sometimes you can get fans to buy in with hopes of a future worth following.
This Devils team is neither entertaining or good-they are the worst combination that you can have as a fan.
Old,Slow and Dull is not the way a fan wants go through the hockey season and yet the New Jersey Devils have decided to build their team around just that premise.

Add to that a head coach that has overstayed his welcome in Peter DeBoer with head scratching decisions and a lack of dedication to playing the few young players on the team that need playing time to develop (Check the revolving door of scratches for Adam Larsson and Eric Gelinas over the last two years) has made DeBoer the most polarizing member of the franchise.
Well,if polarizing means 95% would like to see him removed,then he is polarizing.
Yet,Lou Lamoriello stubbornly sticks to a coach with a losing record that doesn't like young players and is overwhelmingly despised by his fan base in hopes that suddenly Peter Harrold will become Scott Niedermayer and lead the Devils to a miracle run.
Would firing Peter DeBoer turn this team around?
As much as I would like to see him go,no,it would not.
The roster is too old and flawed,but it would be the first sign of a commitment to rebuild and a sign of good faith to a fan base that slowly is losing interest in Devils hockey.

SO what would I do besides remove DeBoer?
Well,to start,much of this team is simply untradable because of either low value or bad contracts,so I'm not going to waste your time with ridiculous trades that have no chance of happening.
That never makes sense as this guy that shows up on Rachel's Devils page with these posts of "8 moves that the Devils must do" with stuff like the Devils trading Dainius Zubrus to Boston for Milan Lucic and other moves that would be wonderful if the Devils got them done,but have zero chance of the other team agreeing to them unless they were drunk and dumb.

However,the Devils could get a little value by the trade deadline for guys like Jaromir Jagr,who could plug a hole for a contender or maybe even Marek Zidlicky for a team that could use power play help.
The Devils should also consider moving one of their three young defensemen (Larsson,Gelinas and Merrill) to a team with a surplus of young forwards as other than maybe Reid Boucher there is little scoring help at Albany.
None of those deals will bring a bounty of help,but they could add a prospect here or a draft pick there that couldn't hurt any in the rebuilding process.
Keeping those players through the deadline in a futile attempt to make the playoffs accomplishes nothing instead of adding something to jump start the process.

As much as I'd love to see Connor McDavid as a Devil,that's unlikely without lottery luck.but this team does need to draft and develop some scorers.
The best scorers do not want to come to New Jersey to play for a bad team with a less than interesting style,so they need to be cultivated and they are not drafted by mediocre teams-they are drafted by terrible teams.
Are the Devils willing to pay the price by being terrible in the short term?
The Devils new owners have been willing embrace that with their basketball team (The 76ers) and might be willing to do that here,but is Lou Lamoriello?

The Devils are a franchise in flux right now and unless someone acts soon,the team will hit the bottom of the league with a thud not a bounce.
Problems are not created or solved overnight,but the longer the team continues to shovel them in the corner and hope they go away,the longer it takes for the needed cleaning up to start.
It needs to start and soon....



No comments: