Monday, December 6, 2010

Is Jayson "Werth" it?

One word-No.

Jayson Werth's staggering seven year and 126 million dollar deal with the Washington Nationals sure makes my argument from yesterday look bad.
Washington showed a willingness to spend and I commend them for it,but the argument in the comments by our friend Wooden makes some sense that spending equally (Under this system) with the New Yorks and Bostons is usually a sucker bet.

Here is my take,Washington just lost Adam Dunn to the White Sox,Stephen Strasburg will miss the season and Bryce Harper is two years away at minimum.
That leaves Washington with one marketable player in Ryan Zimmerman and that has a little of the "been there,done that" syndrome to it despite Zimmerman being an excellent player.
The Nationals panicked and threw a number out there that was beyond the New York (Cliff Lee priority one right now) and Boston ( hammering out the Adrian Gonzalez deal) capabilities at the current time with negotiations with other players,caught them off guard and landed their guy.

Washington needed someone to market and show their fans that they are committed to winning even without the longball hitting Dunn.
I applaud them for that,but at seven years and 126 million?
Keep those numbers in mind and look at the deal Dunn signed with the Pale Hose at four years and 56 million.
The average for Werth's deal is 18 million,Dunn 14 million.
Both players are the same age.
Werth has been great over the last three years,but otherwise non-descript and even then Dunn's numbers are comparable in OPS (the most important hitting statistic) and he hits with even more power.
Werth can steal a base,while Dunn is a base clogger and Werth is the hands down better defender.
So what would make you after looking at those numbers see that Jayson Werth is three years longer and seventy million dollars better than keeping Adam Dunn?
Is the edge in speed and defense that large?

I know there are more to these things than just dollars,Dunn might have wanted to play for a winning team and Washington is still a few years away from contending,so Dunn possibly wasn't interested in returning in any case.
However,this seems like a franchise choking deal in a few years after Werth's decline begins.
Ask the Giants about Barry Zito and how contracts of this size constrict what you can do when you cannot move the oversized deal of a greatly declining player.

Give Washington credit for trying to be a player and give them kudos for replacing a star with one.
I just question the long term value of the deal to the Nationals down the road.
Look at this scenario in 2015,Stephen Strasburg and (possibly Bryce Harper) will be eligible for arbitration and the Nationals will still have 2 years of paying a 36 year old Jayson Werth 18 million bucks a year.
See how that can make any maneuverings difficult to pull off?

Just for the record though-the happiest man in baseball isn't Jayson Werth right now.
It just might be Carl Crawford.

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