Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Hagerstown Suns-The Pitchers

We move on to part two of our look back at the Hagerstown Suns after our earlier look at the hitters, we begin to chat a bit about the pitchers...

The pitchers were not filled with multiple prospects, but there were a few of interest.
The problem is that the top two were both traded in separate trades during the course of the season.

McKenzie Mills was the breakout pitcher of the year here.
The issue for Washington is that if he makes the next jump, he'll be doing it in the system of a divisional rival as Mills was traded to the Phillies for Howie Kendrick.
Mills was 12-2 in Hagerstown in 18 starts here and I usually don't value wins and losses highly in the SAL when measuring a prospect, but in the case of Mills, it's impressive and here's why.
The Nationals use pitch counts as all teams do and often starting pitchers pile up high counts and don't qualify for decisions as often as others.
That usually is a giveaway for command problems, but Mills was involved in the decision in 14 of his 18 starts, which is very high for the low-A level,
That's because of his control with just 22 walks in 104 innings keeps the count down, so the next question is this -Is Mills a soft tosser that was too advanced for the level by hitters that were confused by breaking stuff?
I don't think so.
Mills struck out over 118 (over a batter an inning) and stays in the low 90's and with a build (6'4 and gangly), I don't think it's unrealistic to think that he could gain a tick or two on the fastball.
Mills did allow 12 homers (8 on the road) so I wouldn't want to see him on a short porch team.
Mills was promoted to Potomac but never pitched there due to the trade.
Mills pitched three times for the Phillies high-A team in Clearwater before his season ended.
Not sure if that was due to a minor or major injury issue, but I liked what I saw from McKenzie Mills, who should start back with Clearwater next season.

Tyler Watson wasn't quite as impressive as Mills and his numbers weren't quite as strong before being traded to the Twins when the Nationals added Brandon Kinzler to their bullpen.
Another tall (6'5) and thin (200) righthander, Watson turned 20 during the season and like Mills, struck out over a batter an inning (98 in 93 innings) and showed good control in walking 24 batters in 93 innings in Hagerstown.
The ERA was meh at 4.35, but Watson keeps the ball down and has room to grow into his frame, which may help him a bit with the Twins.
Watson could start 2018 at either High A Fort Myers or return to low A Cedar Rapids where he made a few starts after the trade.

The remainder of the main rotation wasn't much to be excited about.
Sterling Sharp was promoted to Potomac after 17 starts and despite a 3.69 ERA, Sharp fits the look of a pitcher that was refined enough  (just 14 walks) to do well in the SAL but could struggle at higher levels.
Sharp's strikeouts aren't high (69 in 92 innings) and that is the number that I look at first with young pitchers.
If you don't strike out players in low A, it's not likely that you will suddenly do that as you rise with better and more patient hitters.
Sharp might profile best as a long reliever over time.,but he'll likely be in the Potomac rotation next year.

Another tall (Washington does like tall pitchers and hope they gain velocity as they settle into their bodies) at 6'6 hurler in Carlos Pena.
The problem with Pena is that he's already at 240 lbs, doesn't have a high strikeout rate (79 in 99 innings and a high ERA of five makes you eliminate his prospect status-except that teams hit over twenty points less vs Pena than with Sterling Sharp and he pitched best in August, which was the only month that Pena pitched in some games in relief.
Pena might be worth watching in High-A Potomac next season if they start him in the bullpen.

James Bourque made the most starts of any Sun (20) but was hit hard ( an ERA over Five, gave up over a hit an inning and hitters hit .273 against him).
And these were the best numbers that Bourque has ever produced as a professional.
Players with numbers such as Bourque's usually don't get better and at 24, Bourque looks to be headed for organizational soldier status.
Bourque will likely move up to Potomac, mainly due to a lack of options.

No other Suns made starts in the double digits, so the data is a bit more limited on some of these players, but I'll have opinions with asterisks for most of these pitchers.

I only saw A.J.Bogucki start once, but the North Carolina Tar Heel looks Potomac bound.
He is a flyball pitcher, it seems and the Muni tends to help those types of pitchers, so keep that in mind with decent enough numbers.
Sure enough, I look up his home/away split and his ERA was a run and a half (just short to be clear) less at the Muni then on the road.

Matt DeRosier pitched very well after he returned to Hagerstown for his second try at the end of July.
DeRosier never allowed more than three runs in a start and never went less than five innings, so I'm hopeful that DeRosier's health is going to give him a shot in Potomac for 2018.

2017 draftee Brigham Hill made six starts in August as a Sun and three were excellent, but the other three blew his ERA up to six.
There are things to like about Hill, he keeps the ball on the ground and he fanned 30 in 29 innings.but batters hit over .300 in those starts.
I think Hill starts with Hagerstown and leaves quickly for Potomac.

Weston Davis struggled with injuries throughout the year and when he was healthy, struggled on the mound with an ERA near six and only eight more strikeouts than walks.
Davis will need a strong start and is likely to see it in Hagerstown.

Yonathan Ramirez made six starts in his 15 appearances in two Hagerstown stints sandwiched around time in Auburn.
Ramirez struggles with command (20 walks) and isn't overpowering either (23 strikeouts and hitters hit .302).He's just 20, so he'll get another try next year with the Suns...

Ben Braymer made seven late-season starts with five of them being very good and two were the converse, which is why his ERA is a deceivingly high 5.26.
Braymer throws hard and struck out 37 in those starts. I can see Braymer starting in either Hagerstown or Potomac depending on the situation, but I'm interested in seeing more.

Carlos Acevedo notched two starts with eight very nice innings before suffering an injury that saw him never return.
Acevedo will be 24 for next season, so he'll be back in Hagerstown and moved quickly if he starts well.

The best reliever on the Suns was Hayden Howard, a 2016 draftee from Texas Tech.
Howard notched an ERA under three and despite not being overpowering, hitters only hit .253 against him.
Howard pitched the season at 23, so he was a little old for the level, but I think he'll do well at Potomac next season and has a chance to see AA Harrisburg by the end of 2018.

Tommy Peterson, to my surprise, returned to Hagerstown after what I thought was a strong 2016 as a Sun and a decent stint with Potomac.
Peterson again was solid in 18 Hagerstown appearances but was even better in 12 outings with Potomac as Carolina League opponents hit just.113 against him.
Peterson will likely start as the Potomac closer in 2018 and should have an excellent chance of finishing with Harrisburg.

Mick VanVossen was Ok for the Suns before being traded to the White Sox for Ryan Raburn.
VanVossen was tremendous for Kannapolis but was hit hard in twelve innings for the High A affiliate of the White Sox in Winston-Salem.
VanVossen made his second tour in the SAL in 2017 and turns 25 before next season, which isn't a good statement for prospect status.

Panamanian Steven Fuentes was 20 for the season and he needs to fill out at just 175 pounds, but his numbers were decent if nothing special.
Fuentes will move up to Potomac and I'll be interested to see if he can miss more bats ( 53 K's in 63 innings)

Jordan Mills was signed from the independent leagues and fit the mold of an older (25) control pitcher doing well in the SAL.
Mills didn't fare as well in Potomac and would return there if the Nationals decide to keep a soon to be 26 year old in Woodbridge.

Jorge Pantoja allowed just one run in nine innings before a promotion to Potomac, where he had a good year with an ERA of 2.06.
Pantoja is likely to be in AA Harrisburg for 2018.

Kyle Simonds showed that wins and losses aren't everything in his 30 appearances as he finished 5-0.
Simons had an ERA of five and a half and allowed a team-high 13 homers...

Sam Held's numbers look similar to Simonds, but he started well and finished well, so I wouldn't be against giving him one final Potomac look next season.

Jake Barnett was great at Auburn and Ok with the Suns with one bad outing lifting his Hagerstown ERA to the high three's.He'll be back with the Suns.

Normally, I'd think Phil Morse would be perhaps headed out of the game with an ERA over 6 and batters hitting .341 against him, but he has one stat that would make me keep him around- 31 strikeouts in 20 innings.
Worth another look...

Jacob Howell allowed runs in each of his five outings before his season ended due to injury.

David Ramos put up an ERA over ten and was released after six appearances.

2017 draftees Alex Troop (Michigan State) and Gabe Klobosits (Auburn) made late-season cameos.
Klobosits was the more interesting one with eleven strikeouts in five innings with just one run and one hit.but Troop allowed a run on two hits over five innings too.
Both should be in Hagerstown next year.

We wrap up with the memorable one inning four batter outing by the aging and taciturn Francisco Rodriguez, who came to Hagerstown to pitch the first inning of a game against Charleston that saw every batter smash the ball with a base hit,two fly balls that only stayed in the park because of the deep dimensions of the Muni and a crushed line drive right at the second baseman by former first-rounder Blake Rutherford that if the player (I think it was Angelo LaBruna) didn't catch the liner, it might have injured him severely.
Rodriguez was released by Washington the next day.

Hope you enjoyed our look at the Suns.
It was an interesting year in Hagerstown if not one well attended.
Hagerstown did avoid the basement in attendance due to four days of sellouts when Tim Tebow arrived with the Columbia Fireflies (adding roughly 16,000 in numbers),but before giving them too much credit-consider that last place Kannapolis (who finished 15,000 behind Hagerstown) never received a Tebow visit, which was a fact brought up to me in BOTH of my visits to Kannapolis by Intimidators front office members.










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