They are feature oriented and uses one of our most popular segments,so I hope you enjoy them.
I did not have much to talk about yesterday,so I am hoping to knock a quick post out later tonight on Random Ramblings ,if I have time.....
I am hoping to access a PC from the traveling office some time late tomorrow night to offer my views on the Joe Biden vs Mel Tillis umm Sarah Palin debate after its conclusion.
To the mailing list readers,please remember that the mailer will not be going out as usual while I am away...
Wilbur Miller has been kind enough to send us two sets of opinions on some questions.
Here is Part one,Part two will go up from Auto Pilot tomorrow and a Part 3 will be finished sometime next week.
Thanks again to Wilbur for his time.
1) Who is the Pirate MVP and why
Wilbur: McLouth, easily. He did the most to help them win games. Doumit would have been close if he’d played 145-150 games, but he didn’t.
Thoughts of RS: McLouth for the reasons that Wilbur said.If Doumit had stayed healthy,he may have made a run at it with McLouth's post All-Star fade.
2) Paul Maholm is clearly the pitching surprise,which was the bigger disappointment-Snell or Gorzelanny?
Wilbur:Gorzelanny, because his performance was worse. Snell eventually gave them some good games. Snell is probably also the more likely to turn it around. I don’t know what the deal was with him. His velocity was down early in the year, but it rebounded. He had trouble throwing strikes for the first time in his career. I can’t help thinking he needs better coaching and needs to be in better shape. He was always one of their best-conditioned players, but didn’t look it this year.
TRS: One really could flip a coin.Snell seemed to have better stuff throughout,but his head seemed to be somewhere else,maybe a problem with Jeff Andrews?Gorzelanny seemed to be lacking everything that allowed him to pitch so well in 2007.Gorzelanny may be the posterchild for abusing pitchers in games that mean nothing.
3) Looking back at the trades with a small amount of data,how do you feel about them now?
WIlbur:It’s funny that the media blasted the Nady deal and thought the Bay deal was OK, because I think the Nady deal has a good chance of producing more. It depends entirely on Tabata, of course. The three Yankees’ pitchers are fringy, although Ohlendorf might be a good setup guy.
The Bay trade will depend on the guys who came from the Dodgers. I have little hope for Hansen and Moss is what he is: a complementary player who won’t make a big difference for the Pirates. Morris looks good, but he’s a low-level pitching prospect so he’s very risky by definition. LaRoche . . . uh, see below.
If you want to compare the two trades, I think it’ll come down to LaRoche vs. Tabata, with Morris as a wild card.
The question of whether they should have been made is a huge topic by itself. I’ve never had a problem with it, because IMO Huntington was facing a situation where the major league team wasn’t capable of winning, much less contending, and there was little hitting and no pitching in the minors. I think it was a question of choosing between two possibilities: (1) taking one more shot with mostly the same guys in 2009, with an extremely low probability of success given their track record, and then having a complete collapse in 2010 that would take at least 6-8 years to recover from, or (2) starting immediately to build the farm system in an effort to turn things around in 2-3 years. Easy choice, to me. Whining about 16 losing years doesn’t change the realities. Huntington and Coonelly inherited a property that had been completely razed and the ground sown with salt. Do you want to throw up a flimsy, ramshackle house or start building a real foundation?
As for whether they were good trades, I don’t think Huntington could have done much better. Nobody is trading blue chip prospects now unless the return is huge, like a Miguel Cabrera. Huntington got some guys with some warts, but with high upsides, mainly Tabata, LaRoche, Hansen and Morris. That was the right approach. And a surprising number of the guys he got were major league ready talent, which is another thing that teams don’t like to give up.
TRS: I had no problem at all making the deals and think that Tabata has the highest upside of all the players involved.That is the type of trade that you hope they would make-getting a guy with huge upside and a couple of guys that are prospects with various questions.
Ohlendorf has a solid arm,but seems to me to be more a relief guy.Karstens could be a crafty 5th starter as a ceiling and a mopup pitcher at worst.I haven't seen Daniel McCutchen,so not sure on him.Considering what the Pirates gave up-a OK outfielder in the middle of a career year and a reliever,I am more than satisfied there.
The Bay deal,not so much.The window is small,but Andy LaRoche has not looked good at all,Brandon Moss is (as Wilbur said) a complementary player that hustles a lot,fans will love,but really is not a difference make,Craig Hansen struggled with control with a Boston org. that has some of the best teachers around,what could make you think Pirate coaching can make a difference? and Bryan Morris shows some hope.
The trades were not easy sales to the casual fan,but anyone that looks under the label has to be smart enough to see that while there are no guarantees on either deal,the status quo was not acceptable,if the true goal is building a solid organization.No one would like to see more losing seasons,but if that is the price of turning this ship around,I have no trouble paying that toll.
4) Even with such a small data window,is Andy LaRoche has disappointing as he seems?
Wilbur:There’s no way his performance is anything other than a very bad sign, but it’s too early to give up on him. For one thing, the sample size is too small. It’s amazingly difficult to convey to a lot of people how important it is not to judge a guy even on a couple hundred at-bats. Mark Shapiro has said the Indians’ research shows the average hitter takes 700-1100 at-bats to get acclimated to the majors. And I’m not discounting the possibility that the thumb surgery he had in the spring played a big role, regardless of LaRoche’s denial. Hitters can be very slow to recover from hand and wrist injuries. I think the odds of him succeeding went down with every 0-for-15 streak, but I don’t think they’re nearly gone yet.
I’ve gotten a bit annoyed at the “accountability” potshots Dejan Kovacevic has taken at LaRoche. Not running out a grounder is unacceptable, but that’s an issue that can be dealt with. Benching LaRoche at this stage because he hasn’t hit, however, would have been incredibly stupid. The point of accountability isn’t to “punish” people who underperform. It’s to ensure that their performance counts in the overall balance, with the team’s interest in winning as paramount. A guy like LaRoche, who’s been very highly regarded for years, has the potential to contribute far more to the team over the long term than, say, Raul Chavez, so LaRoche doesn’t and shouldn’t get graded on the same scale as Chavez. His performance counts, but other factors do, too. The point isn’t to be “fair,” it’s to maximize the team’s chances.
TRS: Disappointing?Certainly.
And the effort has left much to be desired,but considering his injuries both before and after the deal,I am far from ready to give up on him yet.It does seem that third base prospects tend to bomb more often than others for some reason,look at Andy Marte in Cleveland.Marte was at least equally regarded as LaRoche,if not higher and he has struggled immensely.Dejan tends to play favorites (even though I enjoy his work),so I kind of let that roll,but my argument is this-Ok,you think he is a bust or aren't happy with the lack of hustle,what is your choice? Run the veteran sparkplug types out there that hustle,aren't very good and should not be in the lineup anyway? No matter your opinion on the talents of Andy LaRoche,no one can show me a reasonable alternative that makes any sense at all.
5) What are the chances that Pirates get something from Boston considering the Brandon Moss injury may be part of a pre existing condition?
To get anywhere with this, I think they’d have to show Boston knew of his condition. Moss himself was caught off guard by it, so it’s hard to see how they’d show Boston knew.
TRS:Unless Moss's admission of his knee bothering him on turf is worth anything,I kinda doubt it.
6)Chances of a Jack Wilson return are slim,if he is dealt,would like to see Luis Cruz,Brian Bixler,a veteran FA or maybe a young player in a prospective Wilson deal?
They need to get somebody younger in a deal. Cruz and Bixler can’t hit, and I can’t see a worthwhile FA SS signing with the Pirates, if there even are any.
TRS:I agree.If you want a veteran to man the fort,keep Wilson.I am not sure how they figure out a way to get one that fits the bill,but that is the way to attempt to go.
7) Most Pirate blogs are down on Nyjer Morgan.
What do front office types see in him and is it possible he could start 2009 in CF?
I think they see him in LF short term, as a bridge to McCutchen or Tabata, or maybe even Neil Walker now that Alvarez is on board. Or possibly Alvarez himself. They’ve said they like the idea of a second centerfielder in left, and I think they also figure they’ll need to move McLouth lower in the order for a while at least, so they like the idea of a leadoff type. And the Tike Redman/Chris Duffy syndrome seems to strike everybody. Fast guy with limited baseball skills, does pretty well at first, pitchers figure him out, but his own manager takes a lot longer. And most managers overrate speed and continually fantasize that if the speedy guy just hit everything on the ground, he’d squib his way to .320.
TRS: I could not have said any of this better,except I can hope that they don't look at Morgan as a bridge to the future.That bodes for some bad watching next summer,but as a 5th outfielder,I suppose I could live with him,but as a starter? I guess some of these old time baseball guys just cant resist the slap hitting speed type .
8)Steve Pearce,on the other hand,is loved by the net,but seemingly not by the front office/John Russell.
Thoughts on why?
The team figures he’ll never hit breaking balls, I guess. And scouts have never liked him, or his swing. His swing is unorthodox and people don’t want to take a chance on it, like the way Moneyball recounts how nobody but Billy Beane wanted to take a chance on Chad Bradford.
OTOH, some people on the internet seem to think you can discount this year for some unexplained reason. He’s 25 now and should have been able to handle AAA.
I think the truth is in between, that Pearce could be a good complementary player given the chance, which I doubt he’ll get.
TRS: The swing is different for sure and not a scout friendly one,but to me Pearce may not be a future cornerstone,but the Pirates need to see what they have and they damn sure wont get that by sitting him for Nyjer Morgan.
9) Adam LaRoche will be a free agent after 2009,.do you think he gets moved over the winter or around next years deadline?
Deadline maybe, if things are going very badly. No way it happens this winter unless some incredible deal comes along. They know they have a serious power deficit. Plus, anybody acquiring him at the deadline will figure they’ve missed the slumping part.
TRS: Agreed,with a lack of power on this team,they cannot afford it and at the deadline,LaRoche could be quite valuable,especially if he can even hit fair in the months that he normally struggles in.
10) Neal Huntington says the top wants on a shopping list are a power bat and a veteran pitcher.
Thoughts on which is more important,which is more likely and any thoughts on possible gems in the rough that Pittsburgh can afford....
The bat is more likely and should be the top priority. The Pirates have said power is their biggest problem and they have a lot of starting depth, although quality is an issue. I have a lot of trouble seeing how they’re going to sign any FA good enough to make a difference. There are very few players like that on the market and they don’t sign with last place teams. Anybody else won’t be worth it. It made sense for the Brewers to overpay Jeff Suppan, because they had so much young talent that they just needed complementary pieces. The Pirates are nowhere near that point. It’d make more sense for them to search the waiver wire and minor league FAs to try to find somebody like Dumatrait, or to find their own version of Ryan Ludwick, Carlos Pena or Juan Rivera.
If they have to go after a FA, one guy to try might be Wily Mo Pena, if he declines his option year. He has 40-HR power and did very well for the Nats late last year. He struggled badly this year with a serious shoulder injury that he tried to hide. They might be able to sign him to an incentive laden deal. He may just need some team to put him in the OF and leave him alone, something Boston wasn’t in a position to do and the Nats didn’t get a chance to do.
For a pitcher, Odalis Perez might be worth a try, but I bet he’ll be out of their price range.
TRS: I have been a Pena booster for years,he would be a great (and cheap) pickup for the outfield.
He could hit 35 homers in Pittsburgh,he'll fan a lot,but might add some excitement at the plate.
A long shot on the mound might be Freddy Garcia,who still may be cheap,but seems to have bounced back health wise.
Garcia might have enough questions to be afforable.
Mining the AAA leftovers sometimes finds a gem and usually an affordable one.
Washington used the "cattle call" last year and got a passable year out of Tim Redding,maybe a similar idea would find something for the Bucs.
Part two tomorrow.
No comments:
Post a Comment